Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
